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আব্দুল্লাহ -আল -মুজাহিদ: ইরানের পিঠ দেয়ালে ঠেকে গেছে তারা নিজের স্বার্থেই চীনের সাথে দহরম মহরম সম্পর্ক তৈরি করেছেন।  ট্রাম্পের চিন বিরোধীতা এবং ২০১৫ সালে ইরানের সাথে পারমানবিক চুক্তি থেকে বের হয়ে আসা দুই দেশকে আরো কাছে টেনেছে।  ইরানের অর্থনীতির অবস্থা খুব ভালো না। কিন্তু বিরোধী গ্রুপ ও মুজাহিদিন-ই-খলক এত বেশি শক্তিশালী না যে তারা এ-ই উসকানিকে কাজে লাগিয়ে ক্ষমতার পট পরিবর্তন করতে পারবে। দীর্ঘমেয়াদে ২০১০ সালের আরব স্প্রিং ইসরাইলকে শক্তিশালী করেছে আর আরবদের ঐক্যে ফাটল ধরেছে। একদিকে গণতন্ত্রের শ্লোগান আর অপর পক্ষে রাজতন্ত্রকে বাঁচিয়ে রাখা পশ্চিমাদের গ্রেট গেমের অংশ।

অন্যদিকে ট্রাম্প ইরানকে একবার ঘুষ সেধেছিলেন,  ইরানকে তিনি মধ্যপ্রাচ্যে অর্থনৈতিকভাবে শক্তিশালী রাষ্ট্র করবেন যদি কিছু শর্ত মেনে চলে সে; তা হল  ইসরাইলকে মেনে নেয়া এবং প্রস্কিদের সাথে সম্পর্ক বিছিন্ন করা। কিন্তু ইরান মেনে নেয় নি এবং আমার মনে হয় তারা আমেরিকার সাথে কোনভাবেই আপোস করবেনা এবং মধ্যপ্রাচ্যে বিড়াল হয়ে থাকতে চাইবে না। অন্যায়ের বিপক্ষে সাহায্য করা তাদের শিয়া ধর্মমতের এক  অপরিহার্য অংশ। ইমাম হোসেনের শোক গাথা ফুলে ফলে প্রসারিত হয়ে  দুর্নীতিবাজ ও পরনির্ভর রেজাশাহের সরকারকে পদচ্যুতের মধ্যদিয়ে যে ইসলামি বিপ­ব সম্ভব হয়েছে তাতে আপোসের জায়গা খুবই কম। ইরানে গণতন্ত্রে বাইরে কোনো শক্তির রাষ্ট্র ক্ষমতায় প্রবেশের  সম্ভবনা খুব কম ;যদিও সেনাবাহিনী বা প্রশাসনে প্রবেশ করে স্যাবোট্যাজের মাধ্যমে নীতির গতিকে কিছুটা থামানো হয়ত সম্ভব। ইসরাইল ও আমেরিকা আপাততো বসে নেই তারা সান জুর ‘ আর্ট অভ ওর’ এ-র কৌশল অবলম্বন করে শত্রু পক্ষের প্রভাবশালী ব্যক্তিদের নিয়মিত ক্ষতি বা দুর্বল করার চেষ্টা করছেন। মেজর জেনারেল হোসেন সোলাইমিনি ও ফাখরিজাদেকে হত্যা হল সেই খেলার আপাতত শেষ পর্ব; যদিও এর শুরু অনেক আগে  হয়েছে।

অন্যদিকে,ইরানের শক্তির উৎস অবশ্যই জনগণ যদিও সেটা আবার একচেটিয়া না। মোল্লাতন্ত্রকে জনগণের একটা অংশের বেশ অপছন্দ । সেটাই ইরানের অন্য ‘এ্যাকিলিস হিলসথ’। ট্রাম্পের কূটনীতির পাল্লায় পড়ে মধ্যপ্রাচ্যের সে কয়টা দেশ ইসরাইলকে স্বীকৃতি দিয়ে ক্ষমতা টিকে যেতে চাইছে তারও মেয়াদ খুব একটা কালজয়ী নাও হতে পারে।

ইরান হল প্রাচীন সভ্যতার পাটপীঠ। জর্জ উইলহেম ফ্রেডারিক হেগেল পারসিয়ানদের প্রথম ‘ঐতিহাসিক মানুষ’ বলে অভিহিত করেছেন। কাইরাস, দারিয়ুস এবং জেরিক্সিস ইরানের ইতিহাসে প্রভাবশালী রাজা। প্রাচীন ইরানের একিমেনিড সম্রাজ্য ছিল সত্যিকারের বিশ্বব্যাপী সুপার পাওয়ার; সাইরাস দ্যা গ্রেট দ্বারা এ সম্রাজ্য প্রতিস্থাপিত হয়েছিল যা বলকান থেকে উত্তর আফ্রিকা পর্যন্ত প্রাসারিত। তারপর সেলুসিড, পারথিয়ান, সাসানিয়ান যা ১০০০ বছর ধরে ইরানকে শাসন করেছে বিশ্বের বড় শক্তি হিসেবে। ইরানের আছে হাজার হাজার বছরের সাংস্কৃতিক ও ঐতিহাসিক ঐতিহ্য। কখনই তারা তাদের ঐতিহ্যের সবকিছুকে নষ্ট হতে দেয় নি। এমনকি সানানিয়ান সম্রাজ্যকে পরাজিত করে মুসলিম জয় (৬৩৩-৬৫৪) ইসলামি সভ্যতার গোড়াপত্তন করলেও; তা তাদের হাতে  কিছুটা পরিবর্তিত হয়ে শিয়ামত ধারণ করেছে। জওহরলাল নেহরু তাঁর বিশ্ব ইতিহাস প্রসঙ্গে লিখেন, ‘আরব-সংস্কৃতি পারশ্যকে গ্রাস করতে না পারলেও আরব সভ্যতার প্রভাব তার উপর প্রচুর পড়েছিল’। মোদ্দাকথা, এত বড যার চেতনা তাকে অবশ্য চিরদিন শৃঙ্খলিত করা খুব সহজ নয়।

বিশ্ব রাজনীতির প্রেক্ষাপটে, ইরান-ই একমাত্র দেশ যে তাদের বিপ্লবী চেতনার দ্বারা কৌশলগতভাবে ইসরাইলকে মোকাবেলা করতে পারে ।  মুসলিম বিশ্বের মধ্যে তারা তথ্য প্রযুক্তি ও জ্ঞান- বিজ্ঞানে ব্যতিক্রম হয়ে দাঁড়িয়ে আছে। নিজেদের  রক্ষা করার মতো অস্ত্র শস্ত্র নিজেরাই  তৈরি করছে। ইরাকে আমেরিকার ‘আল বালাদ’ ঘাঁটিতে র‍্যাডারকে ফাঁকি দিয়ে আক্রমণ তাদের সক্ষমতার এক বড় প্রমাণ।  হিজবুল্লাহ,  হামাস ও ইসলামিক জিহাদ, ইরাক এবং সিরিয়ায় তাদের শক্তিশালী অনুগত বাহিনীর মাধ্যমে  ভবিষ্যতে ইসরাইল তথা পশ্চিমাদের আধিপত্য রুখে দিতে সচেষ্ট বলে মনে হচ্ছে যদিও এ জন্য তাদের অনেক মূল্য  দিতে হবে। দীর্ঘপাল্লার নিখুঁত মিসাইলের ব্যাপারে ইসরাইল এখন মারাত্মক আতঙ্কের মধ্যে আছে যা সামনা সামনি যুদ্ধের হুমকি তৈরি করেছে। তবে,  স্নায়ু যুদ্ধ ও ছোটখাট সংঘর্ষ ছাড়া বড় ধরনের যুদ্ধের সম্ভবনা নেই এর কারণ হল – ইরানে আঞ্চলিক প্রতিদ্বন্দ্বী সৌদি, বাহারাইন, আরব আমিরাত যুদ্ধের ইচ্ছা নেই এবং সেটি যদি হয়ও; তার প্রভাব হবে মারাত্মক। তখন যুদ্ধের নিয়ন্ত্রণ ইসরাইল ও আমেরিকার হাতে নাও থাকতে পারে।যুদ্ধের সুযোগকে কাজে লাগিয়ে ইরান তখন পারমানবিক বোমা তৈরি করে ফেললে তার আইনগত বাধ্যবাধকতা বিশ্বব্যপী ভীষণ কড়া নাও হতে পারে। ইতোমধ্যে অনেকে বলেছে ইরানের হাতে পাঁচটা পারমানবিক বোমা আছে এবং যে কোনো সময় তারা নিজেদের পারমানবিক শক্তির অধিকারী বলে ঘোষণা দিতে পারে।

বিশ্ব রাজনীতিতে আমেরিকা বিরোধী যে একটা মেরু তৈরি হয়েছে তার নেতৃত্বে আছে রাশিয়া ও চিন এবং ইরান সেখানে পুরাতন পার্টনার। বর্তমানে ইরানের কটরপন্থী ইব্রাহিম রাইসি ৪৮.৮% মতান্তরে ৬০% ভোট পেয়ে অষ্টম প্রেসিডেন্ট  নির্বাচিত হয়েছেন  এবং তিনি কড়া সিদ্ধান্ত নিতে পিছপা হবেন না বলে মনে হচ্ছে এবং  নিষেজ্ঞা  যদি উঠে না যায়; তাতে নতুন করে এই সরকারের যায় আসে না। ইরান বিশ্বমত উপেক্ষা  করে নিজের প্রতিবাদী জনগণকে সাইজ করতে জানে। সম্প্রতি দেখা গেছে, ইউরোপ থেকেও ইরান বিরোধী গোয়ান্দের ধরিয়ে  এনে ফাঁসিতে ঝুলিয়েছে ইরান । এক সময়ের তালেবানদের সাথে বিরোধ মিটিয়ে এখন  তাদের মধ্যে সুসম্পর্ক   তৈরি হয়েছে। মধ্যপ্রাচ্য ইরান নিজের প্রয়োজনে সঙ্গী  খুঁজে আবার  প্রয়োজনে ত্যাগ করার ইতিহাস আছে।

ইতোমধ্যে ইসরাইলের  নব্য নির্বাচিত প্রাধানমন্ত্রী নাফতালি বেনেট বিশ্ব নেতাদের ইরানের পারমানবিক আঙ্ক্ষার ব্যাপারে সতর্ক করে নিয়েছেন এবং নব্য প্রেসিডেন্টকে কসাই বলেছেন। তিনি আরব সরকারদের সাথে মিতালীর চেষ্টা করেছেন। কিন্তু প্যালেস্টাইন প্রশ্ন এখনো আরব জনগণের কাছ থেকে হারিয়ে যায় নি। ব্যবসার নিরিখে তারা এই বিষয়টা আপোস করতে নারাজ। তাই  জ্যারেড কুশনারের  একপেশে শতাব্দীর সেরা চুক্তি তাদের  মধ্যে খুব একটা সাড়া ফেলতে পারে নি।

এখন  ভিয়ানায় ইরানের প্রধান আলোচক আব্বাচ আরাকচির নেতৃত্বে আলোচনা চলছে এবং সেখান থেকে যদি কোনো ভালো ফলাফল বেরিয়ে আসে তা হলে খুবই ভালো কিন্তু শেষ খবর পাওয়া পর্যন্ত আলোচনা ভেস্তে গেছে; তাহলে, তা হবে ইরান ও পাশ্চাত্যের মধ্যে ভালো সম্পর্কের সূচনার সুযোগ হারানো এবং এর ফলে ইরান আরো কট্টর হবে এবং কঠোর হস্তে অভ্যন্তরীণ বিক্ষোভ দমন এবং প্রস্কির দ্বারা আমেরিকা সহ গোটা মধ্যপ্রাচ্যে তাদের প্রভাব বাড়াতেই থাকবে এবং তাদের ১৯৭৯ সালের ইসলামি বিপ্লবের আদর্শের জন্য যে কোনো ঝুঁকি নিতে তারা প্রস্তুত;   সামনে আর একটা যুদ্ধ হলেও তার পরওয়া ইরান খুব একটা করবে না।

প্রাবন্ধিক
আব্দুল্লাহ -আল -মুজাহিদ
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485 responses to “ভবিষ্যতের ইরান”

  1. bocoran hk says:

    obviously like your website but you need to check the spelling on several of your posts. Several of them are rife with spelling problems and I find it very bothersome to tell the truth nevertheless I will certainly come back again.

  2. Good day! I know this is somewhat off topic but I was wondering which blog platform are you using for this site? I’m getting fed up of WordPress because I’ve had issues with hackers and I’m looking at options for another platform. I would be great if you could point me in the direction of a good platform.

  3. … [Trackback]

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